October 5, 2013
-- An unmistakable sense of unease has been growing in
capitals around the world as the U.S. government from afar looks
increasingly befuddled — shirking from a military confrontation in
Syria, stymied at home by a gridlocked Congress and in danger of
defaulting on sovereign debt, which could plunge the world's financial
system into chaos.
While each of the factors may be unrelated to the direct exercise of
U.S. foreign policy, taken together they give some allies the sense that
Washington is not as firm as it used to be in its resolve and its
financial capacity, providing an opening for China or Russia to fill the
void, an Asian foreign minister told a group of journalists in New York
this week.
Concerns will only deepen now that President Barack Obama
canceled travel this weekend to the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation
Forum in Bali and the East Asia Summit in Brunei. He pulled out of the
gatherings to stay home to deal with the government shutdown and looming
fears that Congress will block an increase in U.S. borrowing power, a
move that could lead to a U.S. default.
The U.S. is still a pillar of defense for places in Asia like Taiwan
and South Korea, providing a vital security umbrella against China. It
also still has strong allies in the Middle East, including Israel and
the Gulf Arab states arrayed against al-Qaida and Iran.
But in interviews with academics, government leaders and diplomats,
faith that the U.S. will always be there is fraying more than a little.
"The paralysis of the American government, where a rump in Congress
is holding the whole place to ransom, doesn't really jibe with the
notion of the United States as a global leader," said Michael McKinley,
an expert on global relations at the Australian National University.
The political turbulence in Washington and potential economic
bombshells still to come over the U.S. government shutdown and a
possible debt default this month have sent shivers through Europe. The
head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, worried about the
continent's rebound from the 2008 economic downturn.
"We view this recovery as weak, as fragile, as uneven," Draghi said at a news conference.
Germany's influential newspaper Sueddeutsche Zeitung bemoaned the U.S. political chaos.
"At the moment, Washington is fighting over the budget and nobody
knows if the country will still be solvent in three weeks. What is
clear, though, is that America is already politically bankrupt," it
said.
Obama finds himself at the nexus of a government in chaos at home and a wave of foreign policy challenges.
He has been battered by the upheaval in the Middle East from the Arab
Spring revolts after managing to extricate the U.S. from its long,
brutal and largely failed attempt to establish democracy in Iraq. He is
also drawing down U.S. forces from a more than decade-long war in
Afghanistan with no real victory in sight. He leads a country whose
people have no interest in taking any more military action abroad.
As Europe worries about economics, Asian allies watch in some
confusion about what the U.S. is up to with its promise to rebalance
military forces and diplomacy in the face of an increasingly robust
China.
Global concerns about U.S. policy came to a head with Obama's
handling of the civil war in Syria and the alleged use of chemical
weapons by the regime of President Bashar Assad. But, in fact, the
worries go far deeper.
"I think there are a lot of broader concerns about the United States.
They aren't triggered simply by Syria. The reaction the United States
had from the start to events in Egypt created a great deal of concern
among the Gulf and the Arab states," said Anthony Cordesman, a military
affairs specialist at the Center for International Studies.
Kings and princes throughout the Persian Gulf were deeply unsettled
when Washington turned its back on Egypt's long-time dictator and U.S.
ally Hosni Mubarak during the 2011 uprising in the largest Arab country.
Now, Arab allies in the Gulf voice dismay over the rapid policy
redirection from Obama over Syria, where rebel factions have critical
money and weapons channels from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other Gulf
states. It has stirred a rare public dispute with Washington, whose
differences with Gulf allies are often worked out behind closed doors.
Last month, Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal warned that the
renewed emphasis on diplomacy with Assad would allow the Syrian
president to "impose more killing."
After saying Assad must be removed from power and then threatening
military strikes over the regime's alleged chemical weapons attack, the
U.S. is now working with Russia and the U.N. to collect and destroy
Damascus' chemical weapons stockpile. That assures Assad will remain in
power for now and perhaps the long term.
Danny Yatom, a former director of Israel's Mossad intelligence
service, said the U.S. handling of the Syrian crisis and its decision
not to attack after declaring red lines on chemical weapons has hurt
Washington's credibility.
"I think in the eyes of the Syrians and the Iranians, and the rivals
of the United States, it was a signal of weakness, and credibility was
deteriorated," he said.
The Syrian rebels, who were promised U.S. arms, say they feel
deserted by the Americans, adding that they have lost faith and respect
for Obama.
The White House contends that its threat of a military strike against
Assad was what caused the regime to change course and agree to plan
reached by Moscow and Washington to hand its chemical weapons over to
international inspectors for destruction. That's a far better outcome
than resorting to military action, Obama administration officials
insist.
Gulf rulers also have grown suddenly uneasy over the U.S. outreach to their regional rival Iran.
Bahrain Foreign Minister Sheik Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa said Gulf
states "must be in the picture" on any attempts by the U.S. and Iran to
open sustained dialogue or reach settlement over Tehran's nuclear
program. He was quoted Tuesday by the London-based Al Hayat newspaper as
saying Secretary of State John Kerry has promised to consult with his
Gulf "friends" on any significant policy shifts over Iran — a message
that suggested Gulf states are worried about being left on the sidelines
in potentially history-shaping developments in their region.
In response to the new U.S. opening to Iran to deal with its
suspected nuclear weapons program, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu told the U.N. General Assembly that his country remained ready
to act alone to prevent Tehran from building a bomb. He indicated a
willingness to allow some time for further diplomacy but not much. And
he excoriated new Iranian President Hassan Rouhani as a "wolf in sheep's
clothing."
Kerry defended the engagement effort, saying the U.S. would not be
played for "suckers" by Iran. Tehran insists its nuclear program is for
peaceful energy production, while the U.S. and other countries suspect
it is aimed at achieving atomic weapons capability.
McKinley, the Australian expert, said Syria and the U.S. budget
crisis have shaken Australians' faith in their alliance with Washington.
"It means that those who rely on the alliance as the cornerstone of
all Australian foreign policy and particularly security policy are less
certain — it's created an element of uncertainty in their calculations,"
he said.
Running against the tide of concern, leaders in the Philippines are
banking on its most important ally to protect it from China's assertive
claims in the South China Sea. Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin said
Manila still views the U.S. as a dependable ally despite the many
challenges it is facing.
"We should understand that all nations face some kind of problems,
but in terms of our relationship with the United States, she continues
to be there when we need her," Gazmin said.
"There's no change in our feelings," he said. "Our strategic
relationship with the U.S. continues to be healthy. They remain a
reliable ally."
But as Cordesman said, "The rhetoric of diplomacy is just wonderful but it almost never describes the reality."
That reality worldwide, he said, "is a real concern about where is
the U.S. going. There is a question of trust. And I think there is an
increasing feeling that the United States is pulling back, and its
internal politics are more isolationist so that they can't necessarily
trust what U.S. officials say, even if the officials mean it."
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EDITOR'S NOTE — Steven R. Hurst, The Associated Press' international
political writer in Washington, has covered foreign affairs for 35
years, including extended assignments in Russia and the Middle East.
___
AP writers Brian Murphy in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, Robert H.
Reid in Berlin, Hrvoje Hranjski in Manila, Gregory Katz in London, Josef
Federman in Jerusalem, Rod McGuirk in Canberra, Australia, and Sarah
DiLorenzo and David McHugh in Paris contributed to this report.
